George E. Irani thinks that signals coming out of Washington lead observers to believe that George W. Bush is again putting on his hat as a necon ideologue ready to teach unruly Muslim Iranian heathens a lesson. But the American Administration ought to cool down their ideological heels and let European, Chinese and Russian pragmatisms prevail. Iran is today is a powerful country: the current regime has expanded and consolidated its regional and global alliances, and enjoys a large influence among the Shia community in Iraq, being present and influential in Lebanon and Syria and have signed very advantageous economic agreements with Russia, China and India.

Dr. George E. Irani is the Lebanese-born Director of the Africa and Middle East program at the Centro Internacional de Toledo para la Paz (CITpax) based in Madrid. He is the author of several books and papers on the Middle East.

ARE WE ON THE BRINK OF A NEW US WAGED war in the Middle East? Signals coming out of Washington lead observers to believe that George Bush is again putting on his hat as a necon ideologue ready to teach unruly Muslim Iranian heathens a lesson. Can the US pull off another war in a Middle East already bleeding from the disastrous occupation of Iraq?

IRAN AS A POWERFUL COUNTRY
As it looks today Iran is in a better position than was Iraq under Saddam Hussein. In 2003 when the US war in Iraq began Iraq was reeling from more than 13 years of the toughest sanctions ever imposed by the international community. Further, Saddam Hussein had decimated his armies in various unwarranted military adventures such as the war he waged against Iran (with US open support) and the invasion of Kuwait (with US implicit support).

Iran today is a powerful country. The current Iranian regime has expanded and consolidated its regional and global alliances. Regionally, the current Iranian regime enjoys a large influence among the Shia community in Iraq. In a sense Iranian influence and leverage could make or break the current stalemate in Baghdad. Iran is also present and influential in the Levant especially in Lebanon and Syria.

EUROPE, CHINA AND RUSSIA
The Iranians have funded, armed and still support Lebanon’s Hizballah. Teheran is also a close ally of the embattled regime in Damascus. Iran is also a major sponsor and supporter of the current Palestinian government.

Last but not least, the Iranians have signed very advantageous economic agreements with Russia, China and India. Lastly, George Bush has to contend with a brewing rebellion among the top retired brass of the US military.

For these reasons Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney ought to cool down their ideological heels and let European, Chinese and Russian pragmatisms prevail.

If not we are in for a very hot summer of blood sweat and tears.