By Augusto Zamora R. (for Safe Democracy)

Augusto Zamora R. analyzes the possible scenarios in case of a US military intervention in Iran, and states that an aggression of such kind would throw the world towards a situation of enormous uncertainty and with no within-sight benefit. Zamora R. believes that the possibility of a nuclear attack to the Iranian installations would repeat the atomic horror, would produce a human hecatomb and would provoke an energetic and economical collapse all around the world. In short, it is about an impossible war to wage due to its enormous costs; unless the decision is to commit suicide, he alerts.


Augusto Zamora R. is a professor of International Law and International Relations in the Universidad Aut√≥noma of Madrid. He has been a Nicaraguan lawyer before the International Court of Justice between 1983 and 2001. His last book is “La paz burlada. Los procesos de paz en Centroam√©rica” (Editorial Sepha, Madrid, 2006).

A FEW DAYS AGO, MR. JOSEPH CIRINCIONE, US expert on nuclear non-proliferation, declared to the newspaper El Mundo (Madrid) that the US Army, has been performing, for years, war games over Iran. What was not informed by the US, the expert said, is that almost all the armies went wrong, that is to say that the US forces did not reach the proposed goals and that the war exercises concluded in disaster. Their results were, therefore, worse than the ones of the Iraq war.

THREE ANNOUNCEMENTS TO REMEMBER
In the last weeks, the Iranian regime made three announcements to be remembered. The most covered by the media was that the enrichment of uranium was achieved, essential step to produce energy so as to make atomic bombs. The other two barely caught the attention. One announced the success of the proofs of two new multiple use and mobile platform missiles. The third announcement was the proof equally successful of a submarine missile capable of moving at 100 meters per second. Not even the fastest ship, even capable of detecting the missile, would be able to escape the impact. Afterwards, the chief of the Iranian army stated that Iran should arm itself enough so as to resist and battle an external aggression. What means that Iran is already armed.

Differing from Irak, Iran is a country ethnic and religiously homogeneous. The 80 per cent of its population is “irania” and the 98 per cent of its habitants are shia, completely different from the Iraqi ethnic-religious-linguistic stalemate which helped the occupation that much. In population terms, Iran has 62 millions of habitants opposite to the 21 millions of Iraq. US would need three times more soldiers (almost half a million) and an almost infinitive quantity of economical and military resources for a general attack against Iran.

ALMOST A MILLION OF SOLDIERS

At the same time, the US would have to reinforce up to 200,000 men its presence in Iraq, and to triple the quantity in Afghanistan, since even the most moderate and optimistic soldiers know that the conflict would spread towards those neighboring countries. Making calculations, US would have to put on the ground 800,000 soldiers in order to wage a war which would extend from Afghanistan to Iraq and, which would possibly drag Lebanon and Syria into as well.

It would be the biggest military effort of US after Vietnam, with the remarkable difference that, in the 60’s, the military service was compulsory and nowadays it is not anymore. The US forces have had to launch aggressive campaigns to be able to complete the draft, since the daily flow of dead bodies from Iraq and Afghanistan has reduced the military vocation. A general conflict in Middle East would oblige the US to re-establish the compulsory military service, what could provoke an internal conflict of unpredictable consequences.

COMMITING SUICIDE
The contingent plans, as it has become known, contemplate the option of attacks with tactic nuclear weapon over the Iranian centrals. We do not know, what is worse? The nuclear attack would break the unwritten rule of non-use of atomic weapons. To do it, would provoke a human hecatomb, would infect the whole region and could generate reactions from other countries towards the provision of nuclear power. The humankind would take an enormous step backwards, and after all, everything would be allowed.

An aggression against Iran would throw the world to a scenario of enormous uncertainty and with no within-sight benefit. The atomic horror would be repeated, a human hecatomb would take place and it would be provoked an energetic and economical collapse all over the world. Enough reasons to turn the aggression into impossible. Except if we want to commit suicide.