The Israeli military operation, far from its intention, strengthens Hamas
In both cases, the opponents have supported the most intransigent option: the escalation of violence. Even so, both parties are conscious of the fact that the solution to the conflict does not lie in the armed struggle, and that the enemy will be difficult to defeat.
THE MOST CALCULATED STRATEGY
“The Tel Aviv establishment’s maneuvers to surround Hamas generated a sympathy wave towards some type of movement in
In effect, ex-prime minister Sharon was attempting to separate the territories and divide the Palestinian population. However, Hamas’s victory in the 2006 general elections and the taking of
The Tel Aviv establishment’s maneuvers, whose aim was to surround the Hamas government and force it into complete isolation on the international level, generated a sympathy wave towards some type of movement, in Gaza as much as in the vast majority of Arab countries. “Hamas’s message is (at least in appearance) very simple: the Jewish State will not be able to ignore its presence”
Some analysts believe that the January 23rd opening of the border with
Even though it is certain that Hamas is not in a condition to face up to the status quo brought about by the prolonged closing of the border crossings with
RADICALLY DIFFERENT OBJECTIVES
In this fierce clash, Israelis and Palestinians are pursuing completely different objectives. “Israel thinks a hypothetical ceasefire could pose a potential threat to the Jewish State’s security”Apparently the authorities of Tel Aviv have made their goal the political and military defeat of Hamas, the fall of the Government led by Ismail Haniyeh, and the dismantlement of the missile bases, which have turned into a constant nightmare for the inhabitants of the frontier region.
In turn, the Islamic Resistance Movement wants to take advantage of the opportunity to assume the political leadership of the Palestinian population, turning into the Israelis’ privileged negotiator. Hamas’s message is (at least in appearance) very simple: the Jewish State will not be able to ignore its presence. The cessation of the bombing has to be negotiated by the movement’s staff. “More than the half of the conservative Likud’s voters would support dialogue with the Islamic movement” It is obvious that
Hamas’s leaders do not seem very inclined to sign interim agreements with Tel Aviv, as the members of Fatah’s executive did when that party was in power. The truce could be limited to being a mere understanding. For its part, the Israeli Government thinks a hypothetical ceasefire could pose a potential threat to the Jewish State’s national security, since it would facilitate the rearmament of the supposedly decimated Islamic militias.
POSSIBLE SOLUTION ROUTES….AND THE NECESSARY CONDITIONS
It goes without saying that the percentage of the Israeli population willing to negotiate with Hamas is on the rise. According to polls carried out last week by Tel Aviv newspapers, more than half of the conservative Likud’s voters would support dialogue with the Islamic movement. Even the ex-head of the Israeli National Security Council, Efraim Halevy, is in favor of a possible agreement with the radicals.
One person who does not appear to be willing to travel down the path of negotiation is Ehud Olmert, who assures that the (peace) process will be long and painful because miraculous solutions do not exist.
On the eve of the American Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, and the EU’s High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana’s arrival to the region, the Israeli and Palestinian political scientists seem to be opting for the third route; that is, the reestablishment of a framework for global negotiation between the Israeli authorities and the Palestinian factions of the West Bank and Gaza. This option would allow for the consideration of an agreement capable of culminating in the creation of another National Unity Government.
But in order for this to happen,