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]]> By: Brendan O'Leary http://english.safe-democracy.org/2008/04/04/imported-anarchy-in-iraq/#comment-1990 Brendan O'Leary Sat, 19 Apr 2008 16:55:21 +0000 http://english.safe-democracy.org/2008/04/02/imported-anarchy-in-iraq/#comment-1990 Dr Arshin Adib-Moghaddam is innumerate, propagandistic, or careless. He writes above, "But Iraqis continue to die, albeit at a slower rate than before. Conservative estimates set the number of civilian deaths between 82.000 and 90.000 (Iraq Body Count). Others put the figures much higher: between 650.000 (Lancet Study) and 1,2 million (Opinion Research Business). In addition, approximately 2 million Iraqis have been maimed and injured and over 2,2 million dispersed to other countries primarily to Syria, Jordan and Iran." Then he says that "A quick mathematical deduction reveals that since the invasion one third of the overall Iraqi population were killed, maimed or forced to flee their homeland." But even if we accepted the higher figures in each case (and I think there are very good reasons to doubt them all, and to abide, for example, with the Iraq Body Count figures) Dr Adib-Moghaddam's total, on his own narrative, should be 1.2 + 2 + 2.2 = 5.4 million. However, the standard minimum estimate of Iraq's population is 24 million. And, the standard quoted maximum is 27 million. So, over one fifth might be a reasonable extrapolation and approximation from the maximalist figures: There is a big difference between one third and a fifth. Dr Adib-Moghaddam has therefore magnified highly doubtful claims to absurdly higher levels. This is either careless, and poor scholarship, or propaganda. I think he should be asked to explain or correct his calculation. None of this, of course, should be taken to deny that Iraqis, especially Arab Iraqis, have died in large numbers, been injured in large numbers, and been expelled in large numbers - largely at the hands of other Arab forces. Dr Adib-Moghaddam would also benefit from reading and understanding Iraq's constitution better. Nothing that the Kurdistan Regional Government is doing with respect to oil contracts violates Iraq's constitution. In fact, its actions are very carefully legally proofed to ensure that they are entirely compatible with the constitution. It is the federal Oil Minister who tries to act illegally. Dr Adib-Moghaddam should try to tell readers under which law Federal Oil Minister Shahrastani may lawfully veto what the KRG is doing. If he tries to do so he will discover that there is none: the constitution supersedes all laws under previous Iraq’s regimes, and there is, as yet, no federal oil law. Iraq's choice is not between being a nation-state and anarchy. It is between sustaining and implementing its multi-national federal constitution, or further civil war. Yours sincerely, Brendan O'Leary Lauder Professor of Political Science University of Pennsylvania Dr Arshin Adib-Moghaddam is innumerate, propagandistic, or careless. He writes above, “But Iraqis continue to die, albeit at a slower rate than before. Conservative estimates set the number of civilian deaths between 82.000 and 90.000 (Iraq Body Count). Others put the figures much higher: between 650.000 (Lancet Study) and 1,2 million (Opinion Research Business). In addition, approximately 2 million Iraqis have been maimed and injured and over 2,2 million dispersed to other countries primarily to Syria, Jordan and Iran.” Then he says that “A quick mathematical deduction reveals that since the invasion one third of the overall Iraqi population were killed, maimed or forced to flee their homeland.” But even if we accepted the higher figures in each case (and I think there are very good reasons to doubt them all, and to abide, for example, with the Iraq Body Count figures) Dr Adib-Moghaddam’s total, on his own narrative, should be 1.2 + 2 + 2.2 = 5.4 million. However, the standard minimum estimate of Iraq’s population is 24 million. And, the standard quoted maximum is 27 million. So, over one fifth might be a reasonable extrapolation and approximation from the maximalist figures: There is a big difference between one third and a fifth. Dr Adib-Moghaddam has therefore magnified highly doubtful claims to absurdly higher levels. This is either careless, and poor scholarship, or propaganda. I think he should be asked to explain or correct his calculation. None of this, of course, should be taken to deny that Iraqis, especially Arab Iraqis, have died in large numbers, been injured in large numbers, and been expelled in large numbers – largely at the hands of other Arab forces.

Dr Adib-Moghaddam would also benefit from reading and understanding Iraq’s constitution better. Nothing that the Kurdistan Regional Government is doing with respect to oil contracts violates Iraq’s constitution. In fact, its actions are very carefully legally proofed to ensure that they are entirely compatible with the constitution. It is the federal Oil Minister who tries to act illegally. Dr Adib-Moghaddam should try to tell readers under which law Federal Oil Minister Shahrastani may lawfully veto what the KRG is doing. If he tries to do so he will discover that there is none: the constitution supersedes all laws under previous Iraq’s regimes, and there is, as yet, no federal oil law.

Iraq’s choice is not between being a nation-state and anarchy. It is between sustaining and implementing its multi-national federal constitution, or further civil war.

Yours sincerely,

Brendan O’Leary
Lauder Professor of Political Science
University of Pennsylvania

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