Washington’s progressive normalization of relations with Cuba accelerates the process of (irreversible) change on the island, increases Obama’s prestige in Latin America and gives credibility to the American project of continental integration.

(Madrid) THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S progressive normalization of relations with Cuba through easing the embargo and allowing Cuban-Americans to visit their relatives on the island could signify the beginning of a true revolution in the past half century of international relations. It is a bold gamble that might yield quick results, both on the island and throughout the rest of the American continent. This policy accelerates the process of irreversible change in Cuba, increases Obama’s prestige in Latin America and, in accordance with the last Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, gives credibility to the American project of continental integration.

“Obama can achieve a more effective and subtle disembarkation than that of the Bay of Pigs, this time with tourists, dollars, the media and trade”

If the new policy of dialogue and openness with Cuba, which Obama was already championing when he was still a candidate in the presidential campaign, is capable of overcoming the American establishment’s political, economic, electoral and legislative power’s internal resistance – something that still remains to be seen – we will experience a historic moment in the difficult Cuban-American relations, which have historically gone from being characterized by foreign aggression to calculated isolationism, in addition to including the “missile crisis”, which was the closest the two countries came to a nuclear showdown during the Cold War.

THE LOSS OF INNOCENCE

However, Democratic presidents have always had a karmic relationship with Cuba. President Kennedy understood – as Arthur Schlesinger, a special assistant to the president, explains in A Thousand Days (1965) – the distance, regarding Cuba, that existed between his promised “New Frontier” and the crude reality of his first days in office when he accepted the operation prepared by the CIA to hire mercenaries to overthrow the Castro regime. Clinton tried to soften his policy towards the country and ease the embargo, until he ran into obstacles like the “plane attack“, the Cuban rafter phenomenon and the “Conservative Revolution’s” response: the so-called Helms-Burton Act.

“Getting past the response to Obama’s decision, what is certain is that Cuba is currently in an extremely complex situation”

It looks like Cuba is being called upon to represent the loss of that American idealism innocence in Democratic administrations. Even with all of this, the key can be found in the desire for real political change, which this president appears to have in the distinct international scenarios, in reference to that which could be labeled as the premiere of the “New Alliance” diplomacy, which is probably the new American plan for facing up to this period of profound global crisis.

INVASION… OF TOURISTS

As for Cuba, Obama can achieve a more effective and subtle disembarkation than that of the Bay of Pigs, this time with tourists, dollars, the media and trade. The progressive end of the embargo and the arrival of thousands of Americans and Cuban-Americans – it is estimated that there would be nearly a million during the first year – could cause a true social and sociological revolution on the island. A “Coppertone revolution”, as opposed to the United States’ numerous military and criminal attempts to overthrow Castroism and/or kill Castro during the past fifty years.

“Some of that government support is due to the desire to please the United States during the early days of its new continental and universal leadership”

If Che and Camilo were to rise from the dead, they would see how their ideas regarding “revolutionary humanism”, “the big smile revolution” and man’s power to transform through social dynamics as opposed to changes brought about through guns or force, could once again be a tangible reality in Cuba. And on this occasion, against the autocracy of an unsustainable personalism once more. The wall in Berlin could not withstand either the market dynamics or the force of the people. In all of Eastern Europe’s self-called “communist”regimes, the people had carried out their own sociological revolutions much before the official fall of their states.

THE CHINESE MODEL

It is the same in Cuba: Cubans have been undergoing a very special accelerated process of maturation ever since Fidel disappeared from the front lines of the political scene, and they can use this opening as a true catalyst for a change that is today disputed by no one, not even those closest to the party’s leadership or government. The loss of the official discourse’s principal argument and the certain relaxation of some of the harshest consequences of the embargo could amount to the disappearance of the chief reason for the national and nationalist sentiment felt by Cubans as a response to the foreign aggression. And as for foreign support, there is even less room to maneuver, as some of Cuba’s key partners, both in and outside of the Americas – even those sharing an affinity for Castrism -, consider the new American administration’s desire for change to be a historic opportunity not to be squandered.

Getting past the response to Obama’s decision, what is certain is that Cuba is currently in an extremely complex situation regarding any decision that might be an attempt to gradually pave the way for a controlled transition. Within this frame of mind, the question of whether or not the Chinese model of two economic realities under a single political regime could work in Cuba arises, with even more force.

THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE CUBANS

However, before praising the decision to ease the embargo and perhaps even lift it, we must remember that all that glitters is not gold. It is clear that some of that government support is due to the desire to please the United States during the early days of its new continental and universal leadership, but that also some of those responsible for the praise are much more interested in the matter, and are dealing with the eventuality that this decision could be the beginning of the end. These actors hope to play the role of mediator, which would afford them prominent leadership, in order to occupy a strategic position in the inevitable process of change on the island. Not to mention those other – more or less hidden – interests, such as dreaming of doing great business with a Cuba completely open to “speculative pillage”.

“The only thing that is clear is that, inevitably, the transitional process must be an exclusive responsibility of the Cubans”

Whatever role the Obama administration’s decision ends up playing in this process, and regardless of the domestic consequences that it could provoke and the legitimate interests present – or those regarding the “distribution of the loot” that cannot be admitted so freely -, the only thing that is clear is that, inevitably, the transitional process must be an exclusive responsibility of the Cubans.