Edgardo Mocca criticizes the analysis made about the arrival in power of Evo Morales in Bolivia –and the application of nationalizing policies– which, in his opinion, have been done out of context without considering the immediate past of the country. In this light, the author looks diachronically at Bolivia, and explains why we have to be careful with the childish left and with the demonization and extortion insinuated from some neoliberal circles. South America needs a democratic and pacifist Bolivia, capable of maintaining its unit as a Nation. Mocca believes that the dialog is opened, and it seems to be the only pragmatic and effective current formula to preserve the democratic governability.
Maximiliano Borches suggests that the electoral victory of Peruvian President Alan García (social democrat) cannot be perceived as a political victory, considering the massive successes of the Union Party of Peru (Partido Unión por el Perú, UPP) and its leader, Ollanta Humala, who won the first round of elections. Analyzing the situation from this point of view, Borches attributes García’s victory to public fear that his opponent might win, and estimates that he will not be faced with an easy presidency. García has come to power in a political situation of extreme fragility, and must face the popular scrutiny and mistrust that many members of his new government are receiving. In order for García to be able to broaden democracy in Peru, he must reach a consensus within his country.
Pedro G. Cavallero remarks that even if it has been known for years that Raul Castro (Fidel’s younger brother) is the regime’s number-two figure, or even the island’s de facto regent, it is less clear what the brother-to-brother succession would mean for the regime’s continuity. Cavallero comments on the two possible after Fidel scenarios, both dominated by the Cuban military: either a succeeding praetorian regime resulting from Raul assuming leadership, as repressive as the current one, or a second even more worrisome scenario that would occur if Raul were to die before his brother.
Mauro Victoria Soares analyses the wave of attacks that occurred in São Paulo and says that the motivation of the strikes was apparently to press the governors to concede benefits for jailed leaders of the organization that are not allowed for prisoners under the regime, but the action overall was a demonstration of force and efficacy. To make things worse, the immediate response of the police, conversely, prompted a jump in the number of suspects murdered. Since the problem of organized crime has structural causes, comprising a multitude of factors, Victoria Soares remarks that if the actions of the crime organizations constitute a menace to the Democratic Rule of Law, the problem will definately not be solved through a break of this same Rule of Law, he concludes.
Ricardo Israel Z. analyzes the reasons why Evo Morales decided to nationalize the hydrocarbon, and says that there exist serious doubts over the fact that the initiative may enrich Bolivia. Nevertheless, Israel Z. believes that the measure was not a surprise, and that it will be the political and economic success of Morales in the short-term. The most probable fact is that the multinational companies decide that it is no worth betting for the failure of the initiative, but they will decide that the most important thing is to be present wherever the gas and the petroleum are.
Juan Tokatlian says that Latin America is living two tendencies: the dis-institutionalization –after more than three lost decades– and the dis-integration in the mechanisms of political, economic and diplomatic unity (as the Andean Community, MERCOSUR and others). Furthermore, he claims that these two processes have lead the region towards fragile States, broken societies, feeble economies and inconsistent diplomacies. In such light, Tokatlian believes that only the effective expansion of the democracies may establish an internal and regional order, fairer, safer and with more justice.
Ariel Moutsatsos analyzes the Mexican political scenario previous to the presidential elections (of the upcoming month of July) and states that the country is divided in two: the “pro”AMLO —Andrés Manuel López Obrador initials, the Leftist candidate–and the “anti” AMLO. Moutsatsos believes that the discussion level in Mexico is lamentable and if it follows this route, the next President will be elected by chance and not by the debate of ideas and proposals among the parties in battle: PRI, PRD and PAN.
Gustavo Gamallo says that after a decade with an agenda dominated by issues related to economic reforms, Latin America is placing in the foreground the political activity again. However, according to Gamallo that is not enough: an active, conscious and responsible citizenship must be built, capable of plural participation in the political debate and of developing its potency in the public scenario.