Egypt is a pivotal nation in the Arab world, and while a heavy-handed approach would be inappropriate, the authors point out specific ways the United States could offer support. First and foremost, the US could provide economic assistance uniquely suited for the current situation (the US is presently slated to give the same aid to Egypt that it always has). In addition, the authors cite various other means of US support, including debt forgiveness, free trade, private investment, and the appointment of a “transition czar” to administer these plans. The success of the Arab Spring does not depend on the United States, but it is important that the US show it is committed to helping others enjoy the freedoms that we do.

Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, writes a monthly column for The Post. Dunne is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are co-chairs of the Working Group on Egypt.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

In Bahrain, witnessing the protests seems like the Arab version of 1776, with people standing up for democracy in the face of a tyrant monarch even in the face of violence and possible death until President Obama pressured the king to stop shooting his people. The United States has for too long embraced corrupt and repressive autocracies in the Middle East out of fear that a democratic movement might be hostile to us. Kristof looks at the schism between the corrupt Sunni minority in Bahrain and the Shia majority and how the Sunnis receive favorable treatment that has led to the protests.

Kristof is a New York Times columnist.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

There is increasing evidence that Afghanistan is moving in a more positive direction than many analysts think and the country can achieve the stability and self-reliance necessary for a draw-down over the next four years. There are an additional 30,000 troops on the ground, more high-tech intelligence resources, and an increase in the Afghan Army troop strength. Two problems that still exist include the corruption of the Afghan government and the complicity of some Pakistanis with the insurgency, but military and civilian leaders are establishing a task force to investigate and expose corruption and are shoring up the parts of the border that the Taliban uses with Pakistan.

Fick, a former Marine captain, is the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security. Nagl, a former Army lieutenant colonel, is the president of the center.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

Seen from a distance, the Arab revolts of 2011 all seem connected and broadly similar. Yet Stephens notes that on closer inspection, the convulsing states of the Arab world are each undergoing distinct revolutions. Events in Bahrain in the last two weeks have sent a tiny but telling shot across China’s gigantic bow. Even though it has a per capita GDP of $27,000, women can vote, and the country is an excellent place to invest, Bahrainis lack real political freedom. As such, conditions are ripe for a bourgeois revolt. Beijing has been censoring news about the Arab revolt and putting down small but widespread protests that draw inspiration from it. But Bahrain proves–to Beijing’s horror–that economic growth will not save it. Until they grant their people democracy, their quest for discipline will only hasten their demise.

Stephens writes ‘Global View’ for the Journal.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

Recent events in Egypt indicate the beginning of the end for the Middle East’s fascination with Islamist opposition politics, says Nawaz. With failed Islamist experiments in Iran, Sudan, and Afghanistan, the new millennium is witnessing a transition. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood is cause for some concern, but the real story is how secular democratic politics are inspiring the youth of the region. Like Turkey’s, Egypt’s largely secular army is wary of an Islamist takeover. If we can help Egyptians build a democratic society for the first time in their history, we may see the dawn of a new post-Islamist age that transforms political dynamics worldwide.

Nawaz, a former prisoner of conscience in Egypt, is executive director of Quilliam, a counterextremism think tank in England.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

The United States needs to adopt a Freedom Doctrine that unabashedly supports democracy throughout the Middle East. Such a doctrine would include aiding emerging democracies in throwing off dictatorships and protection for new democracies against regional and global totalitarianism. It would allow time for key elements of democracy (such as a free press and independent political parties) to establish themselves before holding elections so as to avoid rogue coups coming to power and destroying the democracy that elected them. This is not reinventing the wheel, says Krauthammer. Similar foreign policy was implemented successfully in post WWII Europe and during the Cold War. A freedom agenda powered by guiding principles can be as effective now as it was in Truman’s day.

Krauthammer is a weekly columnist for The Post, writing on foreign and domestic policy and politics.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

ElBaradei lists the problems facing Egypt, including poverty, illiteracy, and being listed as a failed state, while people live in a state of fear and repression where democracy has been denied to its people. Young people have been preparing for this moment through the Internet, which gave them opportunities for expression and assembly that their government did not. The tipping point was the Tunisian revolution, which sent them the message that they, too, could succeed. President Mubarak can no longer hold on to power that is no longer his, ElBaradei says. He outlines the actions needed next to ensure a peaceful and orderly transition of power to a new Egypt based on freedom and social justice.

ElBaradei, as the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. He is the author of the forthcoming book “The Age of Deception: Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times.”

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

Events in the Middle East have taken the world by surprise. Even Israel’s formidable intelligence services and strong self-interest were unable to predict such a development. As the Egyptians have taken center stage, the protesters’ enduring nationalism must be taken as an encouraging sign: their hope is expressed positively rather than negatively against their national identity. The United States must be careful not to take a paternalistic approach to events in the region so that it does not alienate a new generation of leaders and states.

Will is a twice-weekly columnist for The Post and approximately 400 other newspapers, writing about foreign and domestic politics and policy.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

The Egyptian army is, for the moment, staying neutral, but Friedman wonders if it will stay loyal to Mubarak or establish the army as the guarantor of a peaceful transition to democracy. In order for the second scenario to unfold, people need to see that the uprising is post-ideological, unlike Iran’s 1979 revolution. In Egypt the protests are about Egypt depriving its people of political rights and being forced to live with a declining standard of living. Rather than asking for Palestine or Allah, Egyptians are asking for the right to their own future.

Friedman is a New York Times columnist.

Link to full text in primary source.

more...

There has been a lot said of Egypt’s “March of Millions”. The uprising marks the emergence of a new political society in Egypt, bringing together a totally different coalition of forces. Many think the main reason for the revolts is the rising of food prices, and although this surely added to it, there were a lot of other forces behind Mubarak’s fall from power.

Knowledge about how Egypt’s political, military and police structure works is key to understanding what’s happening in the country, and most Western commentators tend to see all forces of coercion in a non-democratic country as the hammers of dictatorship, but further insight into them shows that each institution has it’s history, and each one acts acoording to it and it’s current situation.

The police forces are run by the Interior Ministry, they were close to Mubarak and co-dependent of him, but with time they gained a kind of autonomy. In the 1980′s, a growing number of gangs invaded the streets of Egypt, asserting self-rule over some specific settlements and slums, These bands were believed to be Islamists, but were mostly unideological. When the Interior Ministry saw they couldn’t beat them, they decided to work with them, training them in using sexualized brutality against protesters and detainees. It was in this period (early 1990′s) when the Interior Ministry turned the State Security Investigations into a threat, using them to detain and torture domestic political dissidents.

The Central Security Services are what the media are calling “the police”: black uniformed, with black helmets, they became the image of the revolution when cameras captured the dissidents kissing these “policeman” and disarming them while they remained impassive. Although the Central Security Services are supposed to act as a private army for Mubarak, they have often risen against him demanding better wages and working conditions.

The Armed Forces of the Arab Republic are a different institution altogether. While Egypt is supposedly still a “military dictatorship”, these forces have been marginalized because they haven’t been allowed to fight anyone since 1977. Thus, they have been given huge payoffs and aid by the US, which have turned them into an organized group of national businessmen. But in recent years, a sense of unease has overcome them, and they have felt an increasing sense of national duty, because it was not standing for its people as it should. They want to restore their honor, and furthermore see themselves as the enemies of the “crony capitalists”, Gamal (Mubarak’s son) and his “team”, who have been selling Egypt’s assets to China, the US, and Persian Gulf Capital. Inside the Armed Forces of the Arab Republic the are two elite sub-groups who have remained loyal to Mubarak. This explains why, during the initial revolts at the end of January, some of the military went against the police and the Central Security; others supported the protesters (like the General Chief of the Armed Forces, Muhammad Tantawi); the chief of Air Force was named Mubarak’s new Prime Minister and other forces protected the radio/tv building from the protesters. They all had their reasons for doing what they did.

The Intelligence Services, also a branch of the military, were captained by Omar Suleiman, the current Vice President. The Intelligence Services take care of external operations, detentions and interrogations. They are obssesed with stability and have a long relationship with the CIA and the USA military. With the rise of the military and the Intelligence Services, Gamal Mubarak was thrown out and Suleiman became VP.

The “nationalist capital” faction in Egypt joined the protesters on January the 31st in demanding the fall of Mubarak, angry at him for favoring Western, European and Chinese investors of national ones. Parallel with this, huge youth and labor groups, powerful and organized, have begun to arise. Groups of unions from the major agricultural towns formed the Trade Union Federation, interested mainly in protecting national manufacturing and agricultural smallholdings, that have no relation to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Youth is getting more and more organized, and these social and internet coordinated groups are becoming increasingly important, and can be grouped in 3 trends: One group are organized by and around international organization; another by an active liegal culture and independent judicial institution from Egypt; the last one represent the intersection of internationalist NGOs, judicial-rights groups and the new leftist, feminist, rural and worker social movements.

Egypt’s humanitarian history can’t be forgotten, as well as their role in the United Nations. Muhammad ElBaradei, Mubarak’s opposite and former director of the United Nations International Energy Agency is now the head of the United Democratic Front, which have asked him to serve as interim president and oversee the national process of building the consensus and drafting the constitution. Egypt’s humanitarian past tells us that rising food prices are not the only reason for the revolts.

Mubarak’s new cabinet may be a “reshuffled” cabinet, but it signifies a big change in political direction and it’s poised to work to bring together the interests of the new military, national capital and labor, while reassuring the US.

Paul Amar is associate Professor of Global & International Studies at the University of California in Santa Barbara

Link to full text in primary source

more...