Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

Tehran ’s Nuclear Challenge

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam describes three reasons that would explain why the international community should not be surprised that Iran continues to say no when it comes to any compromise of its rights under the NPT. First, Iran’s grand strategic preferences accentuate radical independence, both political and economic. In the second place, Iran’s foreign policy elites are deeply suspicious of the international community in general and the Western block organised around the United States in particular. The third reason is related to the modified strategic context in West Asia after the demise of Saddam Hussein and the invasion of Lebanon. Adib-Moghaddam writes that the international community in general and the United Nations in particular have thus created their own weakness vis-à-vis Iran and unless the latter does not emancipate itself from the dogma of a new Middle East it will continue to fail in its mission.

Jordan and the reconfiguration of the Middle East

Ricardo Angoso and Miguel Angel Benedicto explain how Jordan could play an essential role in the reordering of the Middle East. Jordan’s good relations with its neighbors (Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the monarchies of the Gulf) are key to resolving the conflicts of the region, including the confrontation between Israelis and Palestinians. Angoso and Benedicto believe that Jordan’s moderate regime continues to be stable, and one of Washington’s most faithful allies in the region, despite its poor economic situation, and the threats of Islamism and international terrorism. Read on to see why King Abdullah II could have a tremendous influence in pacifying the Middle East.

The changing dynamics of Palestinian politics

Walid Salem writes on the three different strategies that can be taken in order to deal with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: negotiating with Abu-Mazen, negotiating with Hamas, or opening dialogue with both. Due to recent success in convincing the Arab and Muslim world to lift their sanctions, the Hamas-led Palestinian government has become emboldened, and begun to circumvent Abu-Mazen’s authority. Hamas‘ new policy positions also include the opening of direct dialogue with the Israeli government, negotiations with the governments of Jordan and Egypt, and the organization’s slow transformation from a fundamentalist group into a legitimate political force. In Salem’s opinion, neither Abu-Mazen nor Hamas can be ignored in handling the conflict, and the best solution would be to choose the third strategy.

The United States, Israel, and Muslim radical movements

Sohail Mahmood discusses the misguided US Global War on Terror, the failure of Arab and Muslim leadership to ensure the wellbeing of their people and stand up to Israeli and US aggression, and the subsequent rise of extremism. In part because of the growing strength of Arab and Muslim local media, radical groups like Hezbollah and Hamas have become the voice of the Muslim people to express their anger, despair, and disillusionment. In Mahmood’s opinion, the only way to fight fundamentalism is to reform the governments of the region, and change the failed Global War on Terror into a movement of respect for Islam, and support for moderation, democracy, and growth.

Between the Lion of Damascus and the Lion of Teheran

George E. Irani describes how despite the overwhelming results of the US midterm elections, the administration of President Bush is not backing down from its hardliner policies in the Middle East. With the power and influence of both Iran and Syria on the rise, a new (Persian) Cold War seems to be taking place, with relative power manoeuvres and its own arms race. Yet, taking the strife in Lebanon as an example, Irani points out that the US must sit down at the negotiating table with its Middle Eastern counterparts, in order to break this cycle of war and destruction.

The importance of the peace process

Mario Sznajder explains how the growing cycle of violence between Palestinians and Israelis demonstrates a mutual insensitivity and lack of leadership on both sides of the conflict. Apart from the loss of lives, the ongoing violence is contributing to a growing public indifference to suffering, which may very well lead to the degradation of both the Israeli and Palestinian societies. In Sznajder’s opinion, the political elite of both nations needs to adopt the necessary political measures to open up negotiations, thus placing the good of their respective societies above self-interested motivations for political survival.

Reflections on the challenges of the Gaza Strip

Walid Salem explains how the Gaza Strip could become the next Hong Kong of the Middle East provided that steps are taken to reach a permanent peace. In Salem’s opinion, while the Hamas government has shown enormous restraint in upholding the promised ceasefire with Israel, there are three major challenges confronting it: growing social unrest and chaos, its own refusal to recognize Israel, and suffocating international sanctions. Salem explains the importance of human security in establishing a responsible citizenry and building up strong democratic structures, and outlines a possible approach to give the people of Gaza their right to human security and peace.

Who can detain Iran’s nuclear program?

Ricardo Israel Z. explains how the only people capable of detaining Iran’s nuclear program are the Ayatollahs themselves. In Israel Z’s opinion, neither a blockade on boats and airplanes, nor an imposition of international sanctions, nor an attack of nuclear installations will be effective in containing a regime that already has the capacity, resources, and will to continue in its nuclear plans. The solution lies with the Ayatollahs, who hold the true and undeniable power in Iran.

Verdicts of history and Saddam Hussein’s death sentence

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam explains the influence of outside interests and a quasi-legal framework in determining the outcome of Saddam Hussein’s trial. With a hastily announced death sentence, the United States, Britain, Germany and their allies have avoided acknowledgement of their history of collusion with the Ba’thist regime and involvement with Saddam Hussein’s war crimes and chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons programs. In Adib-Moghaddam’s opinion, the verdict ignored truth, impartiality, and comprehensiveness, clarifying the distinction between justice, and victor’s justice.