Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

George E. Irani describes the current situation in Iraq from the chaos of terrorism, to the condition in which women live, to the creation of safe and peaceful Kurdish settlements in the North of Iraq. The country faces many challenges in the years ahead: how to avoid falling into a total civil war, how to construct a national identity, how to reach a consensus among the Iraqi people for the creation of a stable state founded upon the rule of law, and how to rebuild its economy. But perhaps the most important challenge of all is the treatment of women in the country. Despite the fact that the abuse and oppression of women in Iraq continue, in Irani’s opinion the future of the country rests in the hands of women.

Rafael Calduch describes the three objectives of the recent Israeli intervention in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories: the military defeat of Hezbollah and Hamas, the neutralization of Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and the military and diplomatic promise of the international community to assure peace in the region. Beyond the absence of a definitive victory for either side, and Israel’s parallel failure in its first two objectives, Calduch believes that two diverging scenarios are now possible for the region: either a definitive, regional peace agreement will be signed –like the Camp David accords following the Yom Kippur War– or the outbreak of violence will ruin all chances and hope for future regional agreements.

Walid Salem explains how false peace, in which one side controls the other side without fulfilling any of its obligations, has been one of the biggest impediments to ending war in the Middle East. Salem gives three examples on how unilateral peace of control has gained support among intellectuals throughout the world, but clarifies that neither peace of control, nor conflict management solutions, nor confidence building measures will bring an end to the violence. In order for the wars to end, peace must be based upon equality of both sides and not on control of one side over another. Following this process, Salem gives a possible strategy to achieve peace between both Israel and Lebanon, and Israel and Palestine.

Mario Sznajder analyzes the political impact that the war in Lebanon has produced in Israel, where military and civilian protests are calling for the dismissal of Olmert’s government, and governmental investigations are looking into the decisions made during the war. It is obvious that the unilateral pullout of Lebanon in 2000 did nothing to stop Hezbollah’s strategy, and in Sznajder’s opinion, the same will be true of the West Bank. Even if Israel pulls out and establishes the security wall as an international border for the new Palestinian state, eventually missiles will begin to fall from that border too. The only option left, therefore, is negotiation.

Walid Salem addresses the issue of whether Islam as a religion is compatible with the establishment of democracy. Salem believes that it is, and points out that there are hundreds of moderate Islamic groups open to the ideas of peace, democracy, and modernization operating within the Middle East. The West must find a way to incorporate these groups into an alliance against terrorism and so help to instill the values of democracy in the Middle East.

Ricardo Israel Z. discusses the differences between past conflicts of a more political nature in the Middle East, and the current purely military one. In Israel Z.’s opinion, Israel’s will be unable of achieving its objectives of neutralizing Hamas and Hezbollah. And while innocent civilians in Lebanon, Israel, and Palestine suffer, Iran and Syria will be the ones to benefit most from the conflict.

Martin Varsavsky analyzes the current war between Israel and Lebanon labeling it a distraction strategy on the part of Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In Varsavsky’s opinion, Ahmadinejad used his influence with Hezbollah to create a war and divert attention away from his nuclear aims. Varsavsky identifies three possible outcomes for the current conflict: either Israel succeeds in drawing UN troops to police the Israel-Lebanon border, Lebanon turns into a second Iraq, or Israel and the United States decide to wage war on Iran. No matter what the outcome, Varsavsky reminds us, those who will suffer the most in this conflict will be the civilians.

Walid Salem lays bear the rhetoric on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon war, claiming that despite the confusion and emotion built up over decades of conflict, it is possible to find a solution for peace. In Salem’s opinion, Israel must withdraw from the Shebaa Farms and release its Lebanese prisoners, and Hezbollah must recognize Israel, disarm and integrate into the Lebanese army, and promise to uphold a lasting peace on its borders with Israel. The most important way to sort through all of the rhetoric and propaganda on both sides, Salem points out, is to view your enemy as human. Only then can the healing necessary for peace take place.

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam explains how Iran has developed a multilateral strategy to enhance the diplomatic bargaining power of the Ahmadinejad administration. In Adib-Moghaddam’s opinion, given Iran’s defiant international stance and widespread influence, resolving the nuclear crisis will depend on a realistic assessment of Iran’s role in world politics.