Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

Mario Toer explains the complex political framework of Brazil, where 49 percent of the votes obtained by Lula and the Worker’s Party in the first round of elections represents a real accomplishment. In Toer’s opinion, Lula will most likely win the second round, but if he wants to get anything done, he will have to give up his naivety and undertake skillful negotiations with the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party. Toer explains who is who in the vast panorama of Brazilian politics.

Mario Esteban analyzes the relationship between China and Japan since the nomination of the new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the conversion of North Korea’s nuclear threat into a reality. In Esteban’s opinion, both Peking and Tokyo will oppose the nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula head on. But when the time comes to decide what measures to take against Pyongyang, the discrepancies will begin to surface.

Rafael Bueno discusses how the great leap forward taken by Kim Jong Il’s North Korean regime is unlikely to have a happy ending. Using the presence of a foreign threat to secure the absolute obedience of the people, the nuclear test carried out in the province of Hwadaeri will change geopolitics in Asia forever. As Pyongyang just entered the select military nuclear club, bad times are ahead for the Korean peninsula.

Pedro Cavallero analyzes the recent return of Alan García to the Presidency of Peru and explains why, after 16 years, the Peruvians have decided to grant him a second term in the Palacio de Gobierno. García’s previous five-year term left the country in an economic crisis, with poverty at an all time high, inflation rates through the roof, intensified social instability, and a complete lack of faith in the Aprista government. Nowadays, an apparently wiser García has made the people of Peru believe that this time he will pursue a more balanced approach to government. In Cavallero’s opinion, hope that a new era is dawning in Peru may have reason to exist, if Garcia can use moderation in his decisions, and make good use of his second shot at the Presidency.

Sohail Mahmood discusses the growing need for a peaceful solution to the age-old conflict between India and Pakistan. Although enmity runs deep, and the issue of Kashmir will be difficult to resolve, by establishing an environment of patience, trust, credibility, and goodwill, peace may be possible in South Asia. It is time that the people of both Pakistan and India unite with the international community in sending a message of peace to their leaders. In Mahmood’s opinion, a lasting peace is long overdue, to enable both countries to be able to address the important issues of economic and political development, like economic growth, the strengthening of political institutions, and finding a solution to widespread poverty.

Ricardo Israel Z. explains why the United States supports the nomination of Guatemala over Venezuela to one of the non-permanent seats on the Security Council of the United Nations. In Israel Z.’s opinion, Washington has finally learned the lesson of Iraq, and will try to resolve its future polemic issues (with Iran and North Korea) within the Security Council. Chavez, meanwhile, is on a mission to spread his anti-imperialist struggle. Were Caracas to take a seat in the Council, it would be able to vote against the United States on issues considered by the White House to be of top priority to national security.

Miguel Angel Benedicto explains the crisis of the European Union, which is stuck behind an impasse of inefficiency: unable to act but in starts and leaps and following its impulses rather than working collectively. Benedicto believes that responding to day-to-day problems is not enough. The pressing issues of expansion, immigration, foreign policy, globalization, and the distribution of energy require intelligent planning, and frameworks for action for which the EU is unprepared. In order to avoid paralysis, the EU must put radical reforms into action to create change for both the short and long term.

Walid Salem affirms that many analysts are speculating whether there is a realistic possibility of creating a Palestinian state. There are six different beliefs of what may occur in the short term to both Israel and Palestine, however, Salem thinks that the split in the Palestinian vision of the future clarifies the impasse of the process to form a Palestinian National Unity government. He also considers that the peace process is inextricably linked to Hamas‘ move forward. Nevertheless, there are always alternate possibilities and whatever happens; peace in the Middle East does have reason to hope.

Mohammad Darawshe writes on how a small window of opportunity has been opened for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and Israel and Syria. The possibility for peace is existent. Peace agreements are already being established, with provisions to return the Golan Heights to Syria, and create an independent Palestinian state in exchange for security promises to the Israelis. In Darawshe’s opinion, the people of all three nations are tired of the constant fighting. What are needed now are strong leaders who will have the courage to push for peace through adversity, to fight for what is in the best interests of their people, and to set a positive example in the Middle East.