Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

Piero Ignazi analyzes the recent Italian general elections, explaining the probable reasons of such controversial results. Thanks to the new electoral law, paradoxically passed by the former centre-right government, the winning coalition (in this occasion the centre-left) could avail of a very large majority of seats in the Chamber, he states. Furthermore, Ignazi highlights the fact that for the first time, thanks to a recent bill firmly promoted by the centre-right, Italians living abroad had the right to vote for electing deputies and senators, but their votes were not the expected. A U-turn of the centre-left regarding some fiscal matters finished it off. The end of the story is a very large majority of the centre-left in the Chamber and a tight one in the Senate. But, as he points out, this result was universally unpredicted.

Ricardo Israel Z. analyzes the reasons why Evo Morales decided to nationalize the hydrocarbon, and says that there exist serious doubts over the fact that the initiative may enrich Bolivia. Nevertheless, Israel Z. believes that the measure was not a surprise, and that it will be the political and economic success of Morales in the short-term. The most probable fact is that the multinational companies decide that it is no worth betting for the failure of the initiative, but they will decide that the most important thing is to be present wherever the gas and the petroleum are.

Martin Varsavsky comments on the recent nomination of Giorgio Napolitano as the new Italian President, and stating that Italy went from the corrupt media tycoon Prime Minister Berlusconi to the reformed pro-Soviet Communist presidency of Giorgio Napolitano.

Juan Tokatlian says that Latin America is living two tendencies: the dis-institutionalization –after more than three lost decades– and the dis-integration in the mechanisms of political, economic and diplomatic unity (as the Andean Community, MERCOSUR and others). Furthermore, he claims that these two processes have lead the region towards fragile States, broken societies, feeble economies and inconsistent diplomacies. In such light, Tokatlian believes that only the effective expansion of the democracies may establish an internal and regional order, fairer, safer and with more justice.

Pedro G. Cavallero highlights the exponential growth that the Latino community has had in the past decade in the US, stressing the fact that this social and demographic trend has evolved at an extremely rapid pace, generating concerns about the nation’s ability to keep up the newcomers’ arrivals, and the overall enforcement of existing immigration regulations. Nevertheless, problematic trends appear on the horizon, as a rarified and xenophobic discourse has begun to creep into political races. Cavallero states that Hispanic America is at a crossroads. And as Hispanic numbers continue to increase, so will the need for Latinos to assemble large, inclusive, and widely-encompassing coalitions that convey one simple message: Hispanic America has a stake in developing a strong, welcoming, tolerant, and powerful America.

Augusto Zamora R. analyzes the possible scenarios in case of a US military intervention in Iran, and states that an aggression of such kind would throw the world towards a situation of enormous uncertainty and with no within-sight benefit. Zamora R. believes that the possibility of a nuclear attack to the Iranian installations would repeat the atomic horror, would produce a human hecatomb and would provoke an energetic and economical collapse all around the world. In short, it is about an impossible war to wage due to its enormous costs; unless the decision is to commit suicide, he alerts.

Pedro G. Cavallero believes that Hispanics in the United States have shied away from engaging in foreign affairs. Even transnational issues that have a direct impact on their community seem to be beyond Latinos’ reach. U.S.-Israel relationships are not the exception, he states. Recently, the National Council of La Raza (NCLR) and the American Jewish Committee (AJC) –leading Hispanic and Jewish advocacy organizations in the U.S.– took a delegation of Hispanic leaders to Israel. Cavallero reports some of his experiences during the visit and how he realized that the Latino Phenomenon remains rather unknown for most Israelis, although some initiatives to bring Israel closer to the Hispanic community are on the way.

Martin Varsavsky has visited China and several other Asian countries in the past few days and had the opportunity to take notes about his own personal ideas on the main political, economical and cultural issues regarding the Asian giant. Varsavsky analyzes here a couple of brief bullet points on Democracy and Taiwan, cars, pollution and public health, and analyzes piracy, the yen, soy sauce, Mao Tse Tung, economic growth and (if it’s possible) liberty of press.