Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

Ricardo Israel Z. explains how, paradoxically, Israel will be the one to benefit from Hamas’ victory of the Palestinian elections, and that among those who will suffer most from an ever-imminent Palestinian civil war will be Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian cause itself. Ricardo Israel Z. believes that the new international scenario created by Hamas’ extremism will permit Israel to make decisions that before were unviable: such as carrying forward a unilateral withdrawal from a good part of the West Bank, and establishing the borders of a Palestinian nation.

Fernando Delage analyses the state of the European Union’s impasse and explains how the organization is hindered from moving forward not from a crisis of values, but rather from a failing of leadership and disorientation in the face of societies disillusioned with their leaders and fearful for their futures. The impact of globalization and the loss of Europe’s international influence are both factors, which have contributed to the decline of popular support for the Union; a support, Delage affirms, that is essential in order to secure the strong Union that democracy needs in Europe.

Pedro G. Cavallero remarks that even if it has been known for years that Raul Castro (Fidel’s younger brother) is the regime’s number-two figure, or even the island’s de facto regent, it is less clear what the brother-to-brother succession would mean for the regime’s continuity. Cavallero comments on the two possible after Fidel scenarios, both dominated by the Cuban military: either a succeeding praetorian regime resulting from Raul assuming leadership, as repressive as the current one, or a second even more worrisome scenario that would occur if Raul were to die before his brother.

Mauro Victoria Soares analyses the wave of attacks that occurred in São Paulo and says that the motivation of the strikes was apparently to press the governors to concede benefits for jailed leaders of the organization that are not allowed for prisoners under the regime, but the action overall was a demonstration of force and efficacy. To make things worse, the immediate response of the police, conversely, prompted a jump in the number of suspects murdered. Since the problem of organized crime has structural causes, comprising a multitude of factors, Victoria Soares remarks that if the actions of the crime organizations constitute a menace to the Democratic Rule of Law, the problem will definately not be solved through a break of this same Rule of Law, he concludes.

Piero Ignazi analyzes the recent Italian general elections, explaining the probable reasons of such controversial results. Thanks to the new electoral law, paradoxically passed by the former centre-right government, the winning coalition (in this occasion the centre-left) could avail of a very large majority of seats in the Chamber, he states. Furthermore, Ignazi highlights the fact that for the first time, thanks to a recent bill firmly promoted by the centre-right, Italians living abroad had the right to vote for electing deputies and senators, but their votes were not the expected. A U-turn of the centre-left regarding some fiscal matters finished it off. The end of the story is a very large majority of the centre-left in the Chamber and a tight one in the Senate. But, as he points out, this result was universally unpredicted.

Ricardo Israel Z. analyzes the reasons why Evo Morales decided to nationalize the hydrocarbon, and says that there exist serious doubts over the fact that the initiative may enrich Bolivia. Nevertheless, Israel Z. believes that the measure was not a surprise, and that it will be the political and economic success of Morales in the short-term. The most probable fact is that the multinational companies decide that it is no worth betting for the failure of the initiative, but they will decide that the most important thing is to be present wherever the gas and the petroleum are.

Martin Varsavsky comments on the recent nomination of Giorgio Napolitano as the new Italian President, and stating that Italy went from the corrupt media tycoon Prime Minister Berlusconi to the reformed pro-Soviet Communist presidency of Giorgio Napolitano.

Juan Tokatlian says that Latin America is living two tendencies: the dis-institutionalization –after more than three lost decades– and the dis-integration in the mechanisms of political, economic and diplomatic unity (as the Andean Community, MERCOSUR and others). Furthermore, he claims that these two processes have lead the region towards fragile States, broken societies, feeble economies and inconsistent diplomacies. In such light, Tokatlian believes that only the effective expansion of the democracies may establish an internal and regional order, fairer, safer and with more justice.

Pedro G. Cavallero highlights the exponential growth that the Latino community has had in the past decade in the US, stressing the fact that this social and demographic trend has evolved at an extremely rapid pace, generating concerns about the nation’s ability to keep up the newcomers’ arrivals, and the overall enforcement of existing immigration regulations. Nevertheless, problematic trends appear on the horizon, as a rarified and xenophobic discourse has begun to creep into political races. Cavallero states that Hispanic America is at a crossroads. And as Hispanic numbers continue to increase, so will the need for Latinos to assemble large, inclusive, and widely-encompassing coalitions that convey one simple message: Hispanic America has a stake in developing a strong, welcoming, tolerant, and powerful America.