Robert Kagan and Michele Dunne
3/7/2011

Egypt is a pivotal nation in the Arab world, and while a heavy-handed approach would be inappropriate, the authors point out specific ways the United States could offer support. First and foremost, the US could provide economic assistance uniquely suited for the current situation (the US is presently slated to give the same aid to Egypt that it always has). In addition, the authors cite various other means of US support, including debt forgiveness, free trade, private investment, and the appointment of a “transition czar” to administer these plans. The success of the Arab Spring does not depend on the United States, but it is important that the US show it is committed to helping others enjoy the freedoms that we do.

Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, writes a monthly column for The Post. Dunne is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are co-chairs of the Working Group on Egypt.

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Nathaniel Fick and John Nagl
2/21/2011

There is increasing evidence that Afghanistan is moving in a more positive direction than many analysts think and the country can achieve the stability and self-reliance necessary for a draw-down over the next four years. There are an additional 30,000 troops on the ground, more high-tech intelligence resources, and an increase in the Afghan Army troop strength. Two problems that still exist include the corruption of the Afghan government and the complicity of some Pakistanis with the insurgency, but military and civilian leaders are establishing a task force to investigate and expose corruption and are shoring up the parts of the border that the Taliban uses with Pakistan.

Fick, a former Marine captain, is the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security. Nagl, a former Army lieutenant colonel, is the president of the center.

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George Will
2/9/2011

Events in the Middle East have taken the world by surprise. Even Israel’s formidable intelligence services and strong self-interest were unable to predict such a development. As the Egyptians have taken center stage, the protesters’ enduring nationalism must be taken as an encouraging sign: their hope is expressed positively rather than negatively against their national identity. The United States must be careful not to take a paternalistic approach to events in the region so that it does not alienate a new generation of leaders and states.

Will is a twice-weekly columnist for The Post and approximately 400 other newspapers, writing about foreign and domestic politics and policy.

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Thomas L. Friedman
2/9/2011

The Egyptian army is, for the moment, staying neutral, but Friedman wonders if it will stay loyal to Mubarak or establish the army as the guarantor of a peaceful transition to democracy. In order for the second scenario to unfold, people need to see that the uprising is post-ideological, unlike Iran’s 1979 revolution. In Egypt the protests are about Egypt depriving its people of political rights and being forced to live with a declining standard of living. Rather than asking for Palestine or Allah, Egyptians are asking for the right to their own future.

Friedman is a New York Times columnist.

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02/01/2011
Paul Amar

There has been a lot said of Egypt’s “March of Millions”. The uprising marks the emergence of a new political society in Egypt, bringing together a totally different coalition of forces. Many think the main reason for the revolts is the rising of food prices, and although this surely added to it, there were a lot of other forces behind Mubarak’s fall from power.

Knowledge about how Egypt’s political, military and police structure works is key to understanding what’s happening in the country, and most Western commentators tend to see all forces of coercion in a non-democratic country as the hammers of dictatorship, but further insight into them shows that each institution has it’s history, and each one acts acoording to it and it’s current situation.

The police forces are run by the Interior Ministry, they were close to Mubarak and co-dependent of him, but with time they gained a kind of autonomy. In the 1980′s, a growing number of gangs invaded the streets of Egypt, asserting self-rule over some specific settlements and slums, These bands were believed to be Islamists, but were mostly unideological. When the Interior Ministry saw they couldn’t beat them, they decided to work with them, training them in using sexualized brutality against protesters and detainees. It was in this period (early 1990′s) when the Interior Ministry turned the State Security Investigations into a threat, using them to detain and torture domestic political dissidents.

The Central Security Services are what the media are calling “the police”: black uniformed, with black helmets, they became the image of the revolution when cameras captured the dissidents kissing these “policeman” and disarming them while they remained impassive. Although the Central Security Services are supposed to act as a private army for Mubarak, they have often risen against him demanding better wages and working conditions.

The Armed Forces of the Arab Republic are a different institution altogether. While Egypt is supposedly still a “military dictatorship”, these forces have been marginalized because they haven’t been allowed to fight anyone since 1977. Thus, they have been given huge payoffs and aid by the US, which have turned them into an organized group of national businessmen. But in recent years, a sense of unease has overcome them, and they have felt an increasing sense of national duty, because it was not standing for its people as it should. They want to restore their honor, and furthermore see themselves as the enemies of the “crony capitalists”, Gamal (Mubarak’s son) and his “team”, who have been selling Egypt’s assets to China, the US, and Persian Gulf Capital. Inside the Armed Forces of the Arab Republic the are two elite sub-groups who have remained loyal to Mubarak. This explains why, during the initial revolts at the end of January, some of the military went against the police and the Central Security; others supported the protesters (like the General Chief of the Armed Forces, Muhammad Tantawi); the chief of Air Force was named Mubarak’s new Prime Minister and other forces protected the radio/tv building from the protesters. They all had their reasons for doing what they did.

The Intelligence Services, also a branch of the military, were captained by Omar Suleiman, the current Vice President. The Intelligence Services take care of external operations, detentions and interrogations. They are obssesed with stability and have a long relationship with the CIA and the USA military. With the rise of the military and the Intelligence Services, Gamal Mubarak was thrown out and Suleiman became VP.

The “nationalist capital” faction in Egypt joined the protesters on January the 31st in demanding the fall of Mubarak, angry at him for favoring Western, European and Chinese investors of national ones. Parallel with this, huge youth and labor groups, powerful and organized, have begun to arise. Groups of unions from the major agricultural towns formed the Trade Union Federation, interested mainly in protecting national manufacturing and agricultural smallholdings, that have no relation to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Youth is getting more and more organized, and these social and internet coordinated groups are becoming increasingly important, and can be grouped in 3 trends: One group are organized by and around international organization; another by an active liegal culture and independent judicial institution from Egypt; the last one represent the intersection of internationalist NGOs, judicial-rights groups and the new leftist, feminist, rural and worker social movements.

Egypt’s humanitarian history can’t be forgotten, as well as their role in the United Nations. Muhammad ElBaradei, Mubarak’s opposite and former director of the United Nations International Energy Agency is now the head of the United Democratic Front, which have asked him to serve as interim president and oversee the national process of building the consensus and drafting the constitution. Egypt’s humanitarian past tells us that rising food prices are not the only reason for the revolts.

Mubarak’s new cabinet may be a “reshuffled” cabinet, but it signifies a big change in political direction and it’s poised to work to bring together the interests of the new military, national capital and labor, while reassuring the US.

Paul Amar is associate Professor of Global & International Studies at the University of California in Santa Barbara

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Mary Anastasia O’Grady
2/7/2011

Developments in Egypt over the last two weeks have prompted O’Grady to think of Cuba and ask why a similar rebellion against five decades of repression there still appears to be a far-off dream. Part of the answer is in the relationship between the Castro brothers–Fidel and Raúl–and the generals. The rest is explained by the regime’s significantly more repressive model. Castro has bought loyalty from the secret police and military by giving them control of the three most profitable sectors of the economy–retail, travel, and services. In Cuba there are no opposition political parties, no access to the Internet, and rapid response brigades enforce the party line. Despite their unceasing efforts, Cubans can only dream about the freedoms Egyptians enjoy as they voice their grievances.

O’Grady writes ‘The Americas’ for the Journal.

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Mansoura Ez-Eldin
1/31/2011

Ez-Eldin was present during the beginning of the protests in Egypt and says those who began it and organized via Facebook and twitter it are angry at police cruelty and the repression and torture from Mubarak’s regime. He says it is not a plot of the Muslim Brotherhood. He reviews how the government used violence–including live ammunition–against peaceful protestors to prevent an ouster as in Tunisia, and the chaos that has devolved. He says silence is a crime and Egyptians will find a way to have their voices heard to the world to demand freedom and justice.

Mansoura Ez-Eldin is the author of the novels “Maryam’s Maze” and “Beyond Paradise.”

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Timothy Egan
1/21/2011

Regarding the Tucson tragedy, Egan looks at the response to arguments that people who are armed can defend themselves against assassins. In fact several people were armed at the scene and one person who thought of firing at the alleged murderer almost fired at the wrong person. In addition, most citizens are not trained well enough to react well in a violent confrontation. This is not enough reason to disarm citizens, but it is enough to discredit the canard that we need more guns in society. He cites studies that show that states with higher rates of gun ownership have much higher gun death rates.

Egan is a New York Times columnist.

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Robert Wright
1/19/2011

Wright says if America wants to actually cut defense spending it should correct the disproportionate role America plays as the world’s police. We not only foot the monetary bill for this role, but we also pay for the ill will as a result of playing this role. The United Nations Security Council is the mechanism through which threats to peace should be recognized, the military action necessary to deal with them authorized, and the burdens of that military action shared. Wright also suggests non-military ways for global governance to share peace. As our days of global hegemony are passing, we should craft instruments of global governance to assure security in a world we don’t dominate that will equitably distribute the costs of that security.

Wright blogs on culture, politics and world affairs for The New York Times.

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