April 30, 2006
The impossible war against Iran
By Augusto Zamora R. (for Safe Democracy)
Augusto Zamora R. analyzes the possible scenarios in case of a US military intervention in Iran, and states that an aggression of such kind would throw the world towards a situation of enormous uncertainty and with no within-sight benefit. Zamora R. believes that the possibility of a nuclear attack to the Iranian installations would repeat the atomic horror, would produce a human hecatomb and would provoke an energetic and economical collapse all around the world. In short, it is about an impossible war to wage due to its enormous costs; unless the decision is to commit suicide, he alerts.
Augusto Zamora R. is a professor of International Law and International Relations in the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid. He has been a Nicaraguan lawyer before the International Court of Justice between 1983 and 2001. His last book is "La paz burlada. Los procesos de paz en Centroamérica" (Editorial Sepha, Madrid, 2006).
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April 25, 2006
Passing the Torch to Caracas
By Pedro Germán Cavallero (for Safe Democracy)
Pedro G. Cavallero believes that a transferal of power is taking place simultaneous to the issue of succession in Castro´s Cuba and that Venezuela is positioning itself to inherit Cuba´s revolutionary mantle. He notes that not only has Chávez has militarized the state, but he also cites the Colombia-armed conflict, inflaming intra-nation tensions, being a recipient of a humanitarian award by Libya and praising Iran for its quest for nuclear capacity, as examples of the drastic reorientation of the country´s foreign policy. Cavallero concludes that the Havana-Caracas axis seems to set Venezuela on a troubled path, trapped in a querulous past, and in pursuit of an erratic international course.
Pedro German Cavallero is a policy analyst based in Washington DC. He holds a master degree in comparative law and comments regularly on U.S. foreign policy and inter-American affairs.
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April 24, 2006
Observations on China
By Martin Varsavsky
Martin Varsavsky has visited China and several other Asian countries in the past few days and had the opportunity to take notes about his own personal ideas on the main political, economical and cultural issues regarding the Asian giant. Varsavsky analyzes here a couple of brief bullet points on Democracy and Taiwan, cars, pollution and public health, and analyzes piracy, the yen, soy sauce, Mao Tse Tung, economic growth and (if it´s possible) liberty of press.
Mr. Varsavsky is the President of Safe Democracy Foundation and has founded six successful companies in 15 years. He is currently Executive President of FON.
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April 22, 2006
Understanding Belarus
By Carlos Taibo (for Safe Democracy)
Carlos Taibo explains why Belarus has resisted the charms of orange revolutions that, in the last thirty months, have been imposed upon Georgia, Ukraine and Kirguizistan, and today accepts an authoritarian president like Lukashenko. Taibo believes that Belarussians have welcome that which is better to have the already known bad than the good to be known, and that the economic results, the support of Moscow to Minsk and the orange revolution deception in the region appear to be some of the reasons to come to a better understanding of Belarus.
Carlos Taibo is a Political Science professor at the Autonomous University in Madrid and one of the leading experts in Russia and Eastern Europe. He teachs at the Master in International Relations and Communications in the Complutense University in Madrid and has published dozens of books on international politics.
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April 21, 2006
Mexico and the waste of Democracy
By Ariel Moutsatsos (for Safe Democracy)
Ariel Moutsatsos analyzes the Mexican political scenario previous to the presidential elections (of the upcoming month of July) and states that the country is divided in two: the “pro”AMLO --Andrés Manuel López Obrador initials, the Leftist candidate--and the “anti” AMLO. Moutsatsos believes that the discussion level in Mexico is lamentable and if it follows this route, the next President will be elected by chance and not by the debate of ideas and proposals among the parties in battle: PRI, PRD and PAN.
Ariel Moutsatsos is a Mexican journalist of Greek origin, from the Tecnológico of Monterrey. He has a Master degree in International Relations from the University Complutense, and he has been international correspondent in New York, Europe and the Middle East. He covered the 9-11 and 3-11 terrorist attacks for Mexican television and radio. He teaches International Terrorism and Comparative Press. He lives in Paris.
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April 20, 2006
Signals of war in Iran
By George E. Irani (for Safe Democracy)
George E. Irani thinks that signals coming out of Washington lead observers to believe that George W. Bush is again putting on his hat as a necon ideologue ready to teach unruly Muslim Iranian heathens a lesson. But the American Administration ought to cool down their ideological heels and let European, Chinese and Russian pragmatisms prevail. Iran is today is a powerful country: the current regime has expanded and consolidated its regional and global alliances, and enjoys a large influence among the Shia community in Iraq, being present and influential in Lebanon and Syria and have signed very advantageous economic agreements with Russia, China and India.
Dr. George E. Irani is the Lebanese-born Director of the Africa and Middle East program at the Centro Internacional de Toledo para la Paz (CITpax) based in Madrid. He is the author of several books and papers on the Middle East.
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April 18, 2006
An Atlantic Rendezvous?
By Pedro Germán Cavallero (for Safe Democracy)
Pedro Cavallero says that recent American funding cuts to Latin America and the increased sponsoring of Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia demonstrate the widening gap within the Americas. Cavallero notes that the strong opposition that has halted the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, and the EU enlargement process further weakens its ties. Although, he does point out the possibility of an Atlantic Triangle (US-UE-Latin America), he concludes that such a triple partnership is highly unlikely due to a weakened inter-American axis: an Atlantic rendezvous can only take place upon the foundation of sustained and mature relations.
Pedro German Cavallero is a policy analyst based in Washington DC. He holds a master degree in comparative law and comments regularly on U.S. foreign policy and inter-American affairs.
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April 12, 2006
Democracy and Citizenship in Latin America
By Gustavo Gamallo (for Safe Democracy)
Gustavo Gamallo says that after a decade with an agenda dominated by issues related to economic reforms, Latin America is placing in the foreground the political activity again. However, according to Gamallo that is not enough: an active, conscious and responsible citizenship must be built, capable of plural participation in the political debate and of developing its potency in the public scenario.
Gustavo Gamallo is a sociologist specialized in social policies. He is professor at the University of Buenos Aires, and he was the Executive Secretary of the Inter-American Network for Democracy (2003-2005).
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April 8, 2006
Italy, between the US and Europe
By Piero Ignazi (for Safe Democracy)
Piero Ignazi analyzes Italy’s foreign policy and says that --since the end of Second World War— Italy has been anchored by two forces: loyalty to its NATO membership and to the United States on one side, and an active and willing participation in the process of European integration on the other side. Ignazi states that the Italian political elite followed such a double path without advocating any preference or primacy for one over the other. Nevertheless, the present centre-right government, led by Mr. Silvio Berlusconi (since 2001), has been under scrutiny for its supposedly new direction in foreign policy. What is going to happen now after elections?
Piero Ignazi is Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Bologna. He is graduated at the University of Bologna and attended graduated studies at the European University Institute in Florence, and at the MIT. He is the Director of the Master in International Relations, University of Bologna. His field of research concerns mainly the party and party system all over Europe with particular emphasis on the right-extremist parties.
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April 6, 2006
Two models opposite terrorism
By Juan Gabriel Tokatlian (for Safe Democracy)
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian explain that two differentiated models exist today in the fight against terrorism: the American, which looks to deter it through force as well as making it impractible in American soil, and the European, whose aim is to overcome the asymmetry in force in a longer term, not inmediate, and not exclusively through punitive means (dissuasion, development and dialogue). Tokatlian believes that the community of democratic nations today confronts a crucial dilemma: adopt the American model or further develop the European model. The Occidental ideal --and perhaps its own destiny-- is at stake in this crossroad.
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian is a Sociologist and has a PhD and a Master degree from the Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He is the current director of the Political Science and International Relations Department at the Universidad de San Andrés, in Argentina.
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April 5, 2006
Pluralism in Islam
By Arshin Adib-Moghaddam (for Safe Democracy)
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam considers that instead of attempting to excavate the true, eternal essence of Islam, it is worthwile to comprehend the expanding discourses about it within specific ideational situations. This is what he believes is the real challenge posed by Islam. Adib-Moghaddam also illustrates how two transnational Islamic spaces have created a cognitive divide in which the rational majority suffers: “East” by neo-fundamentalist movement and “West”, by neo-conservative strategists. He notes that Bali, Madrid, London, New York, Baghdad, Kabul, Najaf and the Palestinian territories have been caught in the cross-fire of this divide.
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam is the author of “The International Politics of the Persian Gulf: A Cultural Genealogy” (Routledge). Educated at Hamburg, American and Cambridge Universities, he teaches International Relations at Oxford University.
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April 4, 2006
Democracy and Arab minorities
By Mohammad Darawshe (for Safe Democracy)
Mohammad Darawshe discusses the implications of the results in the recent March 2006 Israeli parliamentary elections and states that the elections increased the Arab minoritie´s representation in Israel´s Knesset, thereby winning ten percent of Parliament seats. Darawshe explains the three factors that contribute to the Arab lower share of voters in terms of their actual population and they are: lower turnout rate, age, and citizenship status. According to him, the Arab political parties must unite to form one coalition (rather than four, separate parties) in order to establish legitimacy as a true option and not simply remain an opposition voice.
Mohammad Darawshe is the Director of Public Relations at Givat Haviva, The Jewish-Arab Center for Peace. He is cofounder of One Voice Movement, for peace.
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April 3, 2006
Assad´s strategy and regional realities
By George E. Irani (for Safe Democracy)
Dr. George E. Irani believes that Bashar Assad´s Syrian regime is in the eye of the storm due to three factors: pressures from the Bush Administration, the UN investigation into the Hariri murder, and regional powers. Dr. Irani does mention the success Assad had in Arab solidarity against the US Congress-sponsored sanctions against Syria. However, Dr. Irani adds that Assad failed to achieve a consensus on both the Lebanon and Palestine arenas. Dr. Irani states that the regime is manipulating the remaining leverage it holds on Lebanon, and it hopes to continue using the Palestinian faction as a means to maintain Syrian intervention: Syria can always play for time and use US diplomatic blunders as a means to enhance and maintain some kind of respect.
Dr. George E. Irani is the Lebanese-born Director of the Africa and Middle East program at the Centro Internacional de Toledo para la Paz (CITpax) based in Madrid. He is the author of several books and papers on the Middle East.
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March 30, 2006
Poverty bears the face of a woman
By Bernardo Kliksberg (for Safe Democracy)
Seventy percent of the 3,000 millions of poor in the planet (half of the world population) are women and girls. Two-thirds of the illiterate of the world are women. Bernardo Kliksberg believes that notwithstanding the fact that the conditions of women have improved in the last fifty years, the outstanding challenges are of a great importance: discrimination and exclusion of women have lasted too much in the world --he warns-- and it is high time we all contribute to eradicate it.
Bernardo Kliksberg is one of the world’s major experts in the struggle against poverty, and leads from Washington the “The Inter-American Initiative on Social Capital, Ethics and Development” patronized by the IDB.
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March 29, 2006
A missing mediator in the Southern Cone
By Pedro G. Cavallero (for Safe Democracy)
Pedro G. Cavallero analyzes the current escalating dispute with Uruguay and Argentina in opposition (or in confrontation). As explained, the dispute has come as a result of two European companies’ decision to build an ambitious cellulose-pressing company in Uruguay. Cavallero illustrates the fact that Argentina’s concern is the would-be environmental impact, stemming from the plant’s operation, in one of its provinces. On the other hand, the Uruguay’s response has to push forward with expanding foreign trade policy. Cavallero thinks that this dispute has revealed a subtler discontent: the lack of an effective institutional venue to adjudicate transnational matter, in other words, a trusted, impartial mediator.
Pedro German Cavallero is a policy analyst based in Washington DC. He holds a master degree in comparative law and comments regularly on U.S. foreign policy and inter-American affairs.
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March 28, 2006
New left or neopopulism?
By Fabián Bosoer (for Safe Democracy)
Fabián Bosoer believes that winds of change are blowing in Latin America again. Some people, enthusiastic or worried, consider that the turn to the left of the continent is getting deeper, in order to stress a rupture with the nineties. For others, he adds, the classic dilemma between populism and liberal democracy is on the table again. Bosoer rejects both positions, which put all the countries of the world in the same basket, and states a third alternative. In any case, the key question is: Is there a new paradigm of the democratic governability in Latin America? Fabián Bosoer is a political scientist and journalist working for Clarin. He is professor of Political Science and International Relations in the Buenos Aires University and Belgrano University.
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March 24, 2006
The Logistics of Terrorism
By Jean-Luc Marret (for Safe Democracy)
Jean-Luc Marret analyzes the logisitics of terrorism and defines it as a complicated mass of machinery and discusses its organizational dynamics, networks, rapid transmission of decisions, and finally draws upon Abu Nidal´s Fatah as a present day illustration of such a structure. As stated by Marret, the structure is geared in two directions: the relationship maintained by leaders and is influenced by the constraints of security. He adds that terrorist networks are dependent on four elements: membership numbers, theater of operations, place of origin, and logistical support, and explains it.
Jean-Luc Marret is a researcher at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique in Paris and has concentrated on Islam and terrorism for over ten years. He is a doctor in political science, and teaches international relations and political science at University of Paris XIII, as well as the foreign policy of the United States at the Ecole Spéciale Militaire at Saint-Cyr.
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March 23, 2006
Mexico, A Sleeping Giant Next Door the US
By Pedro G. Cavallero (for Safe Democracy)
Pedro G. Cavallero states that electoral processes in Latin America receive sporadic coverage in the US despite the fact that most of the region’s democracies are far from fully consolidated. Mr. Cavallero analyzes the Mexican political situation --before National elections-- and notes that the perception of Mexico in the US remains blurred, often distorted, and even reduced to simplistic notions, and despite this “binding vicinity”, the country is becoming a vanishing neighbor for the US. Pedro German Cavallero is a policy analyst based in Washington DC. He holds a master degree in comparative law and comments regularly on U.S. foreign policy and inter-American affairs.
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March 16, 2006
Dinner with Bill Clinton
By Martin Varsavsky
Mr. Varsavsky met over dinner with former President Bill Clinton a couple of days ago in New York, where he had the opportunity to share some of his personal ideas on International Affairs. Topics of discussion included the following: Clinton’s view on a potential Hillary Clinton presidential bid, John McCain, Vladimir Putin, Google and Yahoo in China, the oil prices, elections in the US, school vouchers, public education, health care, Iraq, Iran, Hugo Chavez, the Dubai port issues, Michelle Bachelet, evangelical Christians, and FON.
Mr. Varsavsky is the President of Safe Democracy Foundation and has founded six successful companies in 15 years. He is currently Executive President of FON.
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March 15, 2006
A strategy for freedom and democracy: The Palestinian case
By Walid Salem (for Safe Democracy)
Walid Salem states that in Palestine, separation between freedom and democracy was witnessed during the peace process, in two, contradictory experiences: the first occurred during 1996-2000, with the implementation of a strategy to obtain more freedom to the Palestinians was practiced within the Oslo peace process, yet this process was practiced without democratization. In the second experience (2000-2006), the Palestinians were asked to promote democracy as a precondition to obtain more freedom from Israel. According to Salem, now is the time to build a process of democratization - freedom for the Palestinians without separation. Moreover, he states there are two ways to reach this objective: negotiations resulting in two states solutions, or two, unilateral Israeli and Palestinian tracks, leading in the same direction. Walid Salem is the director of Panorama, the Centre for the Dissemination of Democracy and Community Development, East Jerusalem office.
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