Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

Ciro Di Costanzo explains why the civil resistance movement led by candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD), which is protesting the supposed fraudulent recent elections in the heart of Mexico, will fall apart over time. Di Costanzo believes that this civil resistance, Mexican style, lacks convincing arguments and proof and is merely a reaction of suspicion over an autocratic cultural tradition that no longer exists. The resistance is following a risky strategy, which could endanger Marcelo Ebrard’s (PRD) entering government in Mexico City, and could harm the democratic institutions it claims to uphold.

Eric L. Napoli writes that in this summer’s war in Lebanon, the US responded by stalling cease fire negotiations in favour of Israeli interests while Europe’s reaction was to do nothing, thus demonstrating that the EU still lacks the political will and infrastructure for impeding an acute humanitarian crisis in its own front yard. Napoli, thus, questions European passivity towards the human tragedy of its neighbours. He explains how on one side of the Mediterranean hundreds of civilians have lost their lives and thousands are homeless and turned into refugees, and on the other side, the Europeans are getting their feet wet, but not by defending their neighbours’ human rights or counterbalancing US foreign policy. The Europeans are on vacation.

Mario Sznajder analyzes the political impact that the war in Lebanon has produced in Israel, where military and civilian protests are calling for the dismissal of Olmert’s government, and governmental investigations are looking into the decisions made during the war. It is obvious that the unilateral pullout of Lebanon in 2000 did nothing to stop Hezbollah’s strategy, and in Sznajder’s opinion, the same will be true of the West Bank. Even if Israel pulls out and establishes the security wall as an international border for the new Palestinian state, eventually missiles will begin to fall from that border too. The only option left, therefore, is negotiation.

Mario Esteban describes how the reforms to democratize the Vietnamese government, being instituted by the Communist Party of Vietnam, could serve as a valuable model for political change in China. Yet, while many liberal voices are applauding Vietnam’s transformation, many more conservative leaders refuse the idea of following in Vietnam’s footsteps. Instead of fulfilling his promise to reform, Hu Jintao has chosen to continue the rigid framework established by Deng Xiaoping of economic growth, and party control of army and administration. In Esteban’s opinion, China is still far from democracy.

Chimène Coste describes the current state of political and social paralysis provoked by Fidel Castro’s illness, leaving the Cuban people with a vacuum of power. Through written statements, Fidel delegated provisional powers to his brother Raul and several other members of his cabinet, yet no high-ranking official has stepped up to publicly assume power. Despite the seeming normality and unity of the Cuban people, strong tensions are coursing as the society militarizes and prepares for the transition. In Coste’s opinion the most important question to be asked now is: What will prevail? the revolution or the family dynasty?

Mario Toer explains how more than fifty years of denial has led to the current outbreak of violence and terror in San Pablo and Rio de Janeiro. In Toer’s opinion, Brazil has one of the most polarized societies in the world, and so it is no wonder that given the age-old violence of the death squadrons that the poor and marginalized would create their own defense organizations. The process to end the violence will be long and arduous, but in the end the Brazilian government must find a way to reintegrate the marginalized back into society, take support away from the First Command of the Capital, and show Brazil’s citizens that it is concerned about their health, education, and future.