Safe Democracy Foundation - Safe Democracy

Pedro G. Cavallero remarks that even if it has been known for years that Raul Castro (Fidel’s younger brother) is the regime’s number-two figure, or even the island’s de facto regent, it is less clear what the brother-to-brother succession would mean for the regime’s continuity. Cavallero comments on the two possible after Fidel scenarios, both dominated by the Cuban military: either a succeeding praetorian regime resulting from Raul assuming leadership, as repressive as the current one, or a second even more worrisome scenario that would occur if Raul were to die before his brother.

Javier Ortiz writes about the US plans regarding the border with Mexico, and about the Spanish efforts to stop its own illegal immigration, and says that for both countries it is like trying to repair a pipeline in bad condition: an escape is soldered, but the next instant, the water pressure provokes yet another leak. Ortiz believes that the social and economic development in the origin countries of the immigrants must be bolstered, so as to improve the living conditions of potential immigrants to the point where immigration is no longer the only escape.

Mauro Victoria Soares analyses the wave of attacks that occurred in São Paulo and says that the motivation of the strikes was apparently to press the governors to concede benefits for jailed leaders of the organization that are not allowed for prisoners under the regime, but the action overall was a demonstration of force and efficacy. To make things worse, the immediate response of the police, conversely, prompted a jump in the number of suspects murdered. Since the problem of organized crime has structural causes, comprising a multitude of factors, Victoria Soares remarks that if the actions of the crime organizations constitute a menace to the Democratic Rule of Law, the problem will definately not be solved through a break of this same Rule of Law, he concludes.

Piero Ignazi analyzes the recent Italian general elections, explaining the probable reasons of such controversial results. Thanks to the new electoral law, paradoxically passed by the former centre-right government, the winning coalition (in this occasion the centre-left) could avail of a very large majority of seats in the Chamber, he states. Furthermore, Ignazi highlights the fact that for the first time, thanks to a recent bill firmly promoted by the centre-right, Italians living abroad had the right to vote for electing deputies and senators, but their votes were not the expected. A U-turn of the centre-left regarding some fiscal matters finished it off. The end of the story is a very large majority of the centre-left in the Chamber and a tight one in the Senate. But, as he points out, this result was universally unpredicted.

Ricardo Israel Z. analyzes the reasons why Evo Morales decided to nationalize the hydrocarbon, and says that there exist serious doubts over the fact that the initiative may enrich Bolivia. Nevertheless, Israel Z. believes that the measure was not a surprise, and that it will be the political and economic success of Morales in the short-term. The most probable fact is that the multinational companies decide that it is no worth betting for the failure of the initiative, but they will decide that the most important thing is to be present wherever the gas and the petroleum are.