As social unrest rises exponentially each year throughout China, the Communist Party remains as insecure as it has ever been. A regime that is awkward in its own skin and uncomfortable among its own people is always in danger. Beijing sees Liu Xiaobo’s Nobel Peace Prize as part of an international strategy to contain China’s rise. Chinese leaders observe that awarding the prize to past winners like Poland’s Lech Walesa, Burma’s Aung San Suu Kyi, and Iran’s Shirin Ebadi weakened the legitimacy of authoritarian regimes in those countries. Lee notes that Beijing’s official line has always been that reforms will only occur “when the time is right.” It had better democratize soon or domestic discontent will destabilize it.
Lee is a foreign policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney and at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC.
Link to full text in primary source.