By Rafael Calduch Cervera (for Safe Democracy)

Rafael Calduch describes the three objectives of the recent Israeli intervention in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories: the military defeat of Hezbollah and Hamas, the neutralization of Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and the military and diplomatic promise of the international community to assure peace in the region. Beyond the absence of a definitive victory for either side, and Israel‘s parallel failure in its first two objectives, Calduch believes that two diverging scenarios are now possible for the region: either a definitive, regional peace agreement will be signed –like the Camp David accords following the Yom Kippur War– or the outbreak of violence will ruin all chances and hope for future regional agreements.