Geopolitics and the struggle over Resources in the horn of Africa
Asoka Ranaweera describes how the current situation of civil war, repression, and lawlessness in Somalia is more due to the complexities of regional geopolitics, than it is to the supposed infiltration of Al Qaeda. And although the Western World is reluctant to play an active role in Somalia since the UN pullout in the early 1990‘s, it is essential for the world to turn its full attention to Somalia in order to better understand the situation and find a solution to the cycle of violence, which has been repeated over and over again in countless post-colonial states.
Asoka Ranaweera is a political analyst and the Chief Executive Officer of “Grid2Grid Networks Powered by People“, based in Metropolitan Washington DC. He is an expert in the Eurasia and Caspian Sea Region. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Grid2Grid’s clients, partners and/or affiliates.
ONCE THE FORMER PLAYGROUND OF THE GREAT SUPERPOWERS, a distant country is enduring death and destruction. Its population is destitute, caught in-between civil wars led by self-interested warlords. And just as the situation is beginning to seem hopeless a foreign-funded militia steps in and seizes control.
The population by and large welcomes them with open arms as order is restored and the chaos subsides. The takeover becomes headline news for a brief period of time capturing the entire world’s attention. And just as a period of brutal repression is beginning to take hold of the nation, the world moves on.
If this story sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Violent civil war, repression, and bloodshed are very common to the majority of post-colonial countries. And for the most part, the Western World ignores these brutal consequences of colonial rule. The only difference now is that on September 11th 2001, the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington DC woke the West up to the violent reality that the rest of the world lives everyday. As the cycle of violence continues, the story of Somalia, coastal country on the horn of Africa, should seem like déjà vu: unless something is done.
THE HISTORY
Abandoned by the United States and the international community in the early 1990s Somalia, with the exception of Somaliland, Puntland and one or two other independent enclaves that had declared their independence, has descended into widespread chaos. In the midst of the mayhem as warlord fought warlord and in the absence of law and order, a system of Sharia-based Islamic courts were founded to provide justice for ordinary citizens. In time this system of courts would also provide welfare services such as education and health. The rise of the courts, instigated at the grass-roots level, soon challenged the established powers of the time.
Exactly how the Islamic movement, now branded as Union of Islamic Courts, came to be a fully-fledged military force is shrouded in mystery. One thing for sure is that they do appear to have had foreign backing and many people point the finger at Eritrea, a country believed to be engaged in a proxy war with Ethiopia as well as being the primary backers of a newly formed transitional government elected by Somalian elders in Kenya. Others blame Al-Qaeda pointing out that this is a classic example of a failed state in which the preconditions are ripe for the global terror network to establish an invaluable bridgehead and open a new front against the West in an area with much geo-strategic significance.
REGIONAL GEOPOLITICS
While the main stream Western media popularizes the notion that Al-Qaeda is actively engaged in Somalia, the truth might have more to do with regional geopolitics than anything else.
In one corner sit Ethiopia and Kenya–two countries long exposed to the vagaries of conflict in the Somalia, with a need to protect their respective countries from further instability.
Both Ethiopia and Kenya supported a long drawn out reconciliation process, resulting in the establishment of what was supposed to be a transitional government under president Abdulahi Yusuf Ahmed in southern Somalia.
And in the other corner sit Eritrea, Djibouti and several Arab states, each with their own related interests to protect. The reports that arms are being shipped by the planeload from Eritrea to the Islamic Courts Union may have a profound resonance because this presents a good opportunity to strike back at Ethiopia, an old foe. For the Djiboutians the motivations might have more do to with protecting their own economic interests, such as the Port of Djibouti in which Dubai has invested handsomely, lest stability return to Somalia and its once-world famous ports challenge their regional supremacy. And finally, Arab states are seen as having a direct interest in protecting their fellow Muslim brothers and sisters against Christian Ethiopia.
WHERE ARE AMERICA AND THE WEST?
Following America’s engagement in Somalia in the early 1990s, which ended in bitter withdrawal, America’s and the West’s reaction to the recent events have been hard to read. Clearly, America and the West will not intervene directly in Somalia again, notwithstanding their own intelligence reports that provide evidence, which purports to show active Al-Qaeda involvement in the country. More than likely a clandestine war is being waged through their proxy allies Ethiopia and Kenya and paradoxically through the use of American military bases in Djibouti.
With such an opaque situation, it is difficult to know where we should all go from here. Is this a war against Al-Qaeda and/or is it a regional proxy war mainly based upon regional geopolitics?
In order to truly understand what is going on in Somalia, we should focus all of our attention on the events at hand. Rather than ignoring yet another humanitarian crisis, we should strive to understand and end the cycle of violence now, so that we can avoid the onset of yet another sickening wave of déjà vu: an all too common feeling throughout the Western world.
Published by:
Shahin
date: 03 | 10 | 2006
time: 5:10 am
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Very thoughtful and insightful article. Author shows deep knowledge and understanding of the problems of this region. I hope it will ignite further discussion at this very important juncture in the history of this area.
Published by:
Mohamed Abdi
date: 04 | 10 | 2006
time: 1:07 am
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Somalia is indeed a troublesome for the international community to either stand by or worse off be part the of the proxy war. The West and America, in particular is doing mostly the latter for right now. America’s ally in the region, Ethiopia and Kenya are currently protecting Somalia’ weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) which does not have the support of the Somali people nor a much of land in Southern Somalia. In fact, the TFG’ only land is it’s current seat of Biadowo city, some 200 miles outside of the capital Mogadishu, its strongest hold and some think not for to long. On the other had, you have Egypt (Egypt has disputes over the Nile river with Ethiopia) and Eritrea both of whom are rivals of Ethiopia (Ethiopia and Eretria went to two war in the 80s and 90s), support the Islamic Courts Union.
West had already done its damage in Somalia this time, silently. But it was not too late for the rest of the world to find out. It was only few months ago (June ’06) that the world has learnt (CIA reports) that America (thru CIA) was supporting some of the thugs
(Warlords) of Mogadishu to capture three Al-Qaeda suspects who were believed to be hiding in the city. However, the people of Somalia find this to be very hprocritical of America’s policy in teh region. The fact that the warlords have terrorize and killed tens of thousands of Somalis and yet America was siding with these thugs just to get three guys, however criminal they are. The Souther Somalia people gave their full support to the Islamic Courts Union ( ICU), and this has led to the uprising and the immediate success of the UCI. They capture and liberated the people of Mogadishu and much of Southern Somalia within weeks, something the international community nor the warlords they supported couldn’t have accomplish in decades.
Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has consistently denied all allegations of Al-Qaeda elements in its fighters. What has emerged in recent months since the take over of the Islamic Courts Union in Mogadishu from the blood thirsty, self-interest a nd American backed-warlords speaks in volume. today, children are plying outside without fear of being shot, women can go outside without being subject to rape and no thug is collecting money every time a bus moves from one street to the next in Mogadishu. They have law and order and normalcy are the way of life, once again in Mogadishu. Granted there is a lot that Somalis are being subjected to in the form of Shari Laws (Islamic laws) that the ICU has put in place since the take over but the alternative were far worse. I think ICU needs to be given some time and it has recently been reported, America’s own under Secretary of African Affairs, Frazer of USA has recently met the leader of the moderate wing of the ICU, Sheik Sheriff Sheik Ahmad, in Nairobi, Kenya. For the first time, peace, law and order resembles in Mogadishu and everywhere the ICU took control of , including the take of key port of Kismayu, the second largest city in Southern Somalia, without a bullet being fired. It appears that the TFG and its warlord allies’ days are numbered.
Mr. Ranaweera, states where are America and West ? In my view, my friend, there are two things the West and in particular America needs to do in Horn of Africa to stabilize the region and to give credit where one is due, especially if we (US) can practice what we preach: democracy.
a) Must recognize the republic of Somaliland, the former British protectorate, which has successfully established itself as self reliance and a true democratic state and what some of the regions experts are calling and model for Africa and “Africa’s best kept secret” which has a full fledge ( and a mature one some would say) democracy for the last 15 years, declaring to secede after the state of Somalia’s had collapsed in 1991. They have build a multi-party democratic elections, have modern world constitution ( the current President of Somaliland – Dahir R. Kahin came into power after late President Ibrahim H. Mohamed Egal died in South African Hospital due to illness and had since won a second-term elections) and build a democratic institutions; including a House of Elders ( similar to the US Senate) and Parliamentary which is chosen by for one man one vote elections in the mist of all this tragedy of Southern Somalia or what used to be “Somalia”. The recognition of Somaliland will surely bring all parties concerned in Southern Somalia a wake up call and realization of how far the people of Somalia could no longer take the suffering and indignity the warlords have brought to Southern Somalia.
b) Allow a direct talks between the uprising forces of Southern Somalia, the Islamic Courts Union and TFG to negotiate without the intervention of either the front states (Ethiopia,Kenya,Eritrea and Djibouti) nor the Arab League ( Egypt is a major player here) as well as in the AU) and for that matter the African Union. All are party to the conflict in Somalia and are after their own interests and agendas. This is not to say the AU doesn’t have the ability to solve Africa’s problems but simply too many African dictators are still running its agenda which makes the organization a weak and not ready for today’s vibrant and new democracies (e.g., Somaliland) or to solve Africa’s most tragic civil wars (e.g., Darfur). They can’t help the Somali people and none of them are interested in the interest of the Somalia people. We all know too well the AU has failed to help the people of Darfur and elsewhere in the continent. The last 15 conferences have all been held outside of the country ( Somalia) and were all subject to outsiders (Ethiopia and it’s rival Egypt) who’s interests were being served
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